Perception vs. Reality

I ran across this article the other day, and I found it very intriguing. Here’s the gist of it:

…a survey of nearly 1400 shoppers in downtown San Francisco [found that] less than one-fifth drive to shop, and that they spend less money in aggregate than shoppers using other transportation modes (PDF). The study indicates drivers spend more each trip than transit riders, but visit less often and account for far fewer total visits and therefore spend less total.

The data contradict the stereotype that shoppers drive to shop and by consequence need on-street parking or free parking to attract them to downtown and prevent them from shopping at malls in suburban areas.

…72 percent of business owners surveyed in commercial districts said they thought their customers drove alone to shop, while another 15 percent assume customers drove some of the time (PDF).  Further TA data show that while commercial districts in high car ownership neighborhoods like West Portal see up to 41 percent driving shoppers, nothing comes close to the near 90 percent perception among business owners (PDF).

In other words…

Perception: 72% of business owners believed that their customers exclusively drove to shop, while another 15% believed their customers drove sometimes, and only 11% believed that their customers mostly arrived by transit or walking.

Reality: 84% of shoppers in Downtown San Francisco travel by some means other than a car, and these shoppers spend more money per month than the 16% who drive.

That the non-drivers spend more money downtown isn’t shocking to me – for retail trips people are highly inclined to shop near where they live and a lot of people live near downtown San Francisco. For people who live near the city center to visit often and spend a small amount of money on many occasions sounds very typical of urban living everywhere.

What’s surprising is that in a place where 84% of people are not driving, 72% of business owners believed that their customers were all arriving by car. That’s a huge disparity between perception and reality.

Local Disconnects

Now, I’m certain the numbers for any given district in Houston are nowhere near San Fransisco’s – but what are they?  The perception is that about 98-99% of people drive everywhere, I wonder what the reality is in popular urban shopping districts like Rice Village, or the River Oaks shopping center. That would be a really interesting study to perform. I bet the results would be surprising.

Throughout the US there’s this widely held assumption that everyone, everywhere prefers driving to any other mode of transport – and that the few who say otherwise don’t really mean it at the end of the day. There’s a perception that people will not use alternative transportation for ‘daily life’ trips such as shopping and running errands – they’ll only use it to avoid commuter traffic. And there’s this idea that even the people who support transit “really just want everyone else to use it.” I don’t think that these perceptions are based in reality.

It’s this perception that jades us when we read Dr. Klineberg’s annual report. Consider these statistics from the summary report (pdf):

When asked to choose the best long-term solution to the region’s traffic problems, 50% called for “making improvements in public transportation, such as trains, buses, and light rail,” up from 42% in 2007 and 40% in 2005. Another 25% thought traffic might be improved by “building bigger and better roads and highways,” and 20% chose “developing communities where people can live closer to where they work and shop.”

At the same time, 82% said they drive alone to work. Also in the 2009 survey, 54% agreed that, “Even if public transportation were much more efficient than it is today, I would still drive my car to work.” Nevertheless, 41% disagreed with this statement, suggesting the potential for transit.

There are some surprising numbers in here if we stop to think about it:

• First of all 18% of Houston already uses some alternative transportation to get to work. That’s a lot more than I would have guessed by the perception on the street.
• Second, 70% of Houstonians believe that better transit and/or walkable communities are the best long term transportation solution. Again, much more than one would expect given the general attitude around Houston.
• Finally, 41% of Houstonians would actually like to use the new transit system they believe should be built. Again, to say that 41% of Houstonians are interested in changing their current commuting behavior is surprising, if not shocking.

But we tend to be dismissive, rather than surprised. “Yeah well, those people aren’t for real,” we say.

But maybe they are for real, and as the new light rail lines are built we’ll have more opportunities to find out. The Red Line was only expected to carry about 15-20 thousand passengers a day, and it’s been carrying around 40 thousand. Are the projections for the new rail lines similarly underestimating ridership potential?

Only time will tell. And somehow I feel certain that even after the rail is in place and well-utilized, the perception will still be that no one uses it.